Fantasy Baseball Draft - What about Pujols, Beltran and other underachievers?

One thing we have to struggle with in our fantasy baseball draft upper rounds is whether we should expect elite players who underachieved last season to rebound with expected numbers. It's not easy. Elite fantasy baseball players like Albert Pujols, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman for example are all coming off underachieving seasons. They didn't produce the numbers we expected of them. There are elite fantasy baseball pitchers who have come up lame also. Pitchers like Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Chris Carpenter (Injury though) and Roy Halladay, to name a few, didn't perform up to expectations. How do you go about your first several rounds regarding these particular players?

What I wouldn't do is expect all of these players to bounce back. Unless there are other first round picks who could even come close to an Albert Pujols or third round picks who could match Carlos Beltran's likely numbers I wouldn't give it a second thought. These guys are nobrainer picks. For example; let's say you have to choose between Albert Pujols and David Wright, who is becoming a fantasy baseball elite himself. You still have to go with Albert Pujols. In this case I'm sure you'll all agree.

But in the case of later rounds there are tougher choices; let's say that in the third round you have a choice between Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay. In this case, based on Beltran missing paydirt 2 of his last three seasons, you'd go with Bay, who finished with less than expected numbers last season. Bay would be a better pick there. But then what if Beltran goes 30/30 or maybe even 40/40? How could we know? No. You have to insure your team with the most likely scenario. In that case it is that Jason Bay would deliver and you then wouldn't care if an iffy elite did or didn't. Just choose a player who will put up stud numbers and you won't have to worry. That works in every category, from pitchers, infielders, catchers etc.

Face it. You'll have to entertain alot of ifs regarding fantasy baseball players who underachieved last season as well as those who tore it up. Whose to say that Mr. Braun from Milwaukee, or his teammate J.J. Hardy won't suffer sophmore jinxes? Whose to say that Josh Beckett won't get blistered up all season and get cut from your team because of continuous dl visits? You have to weigh in all factors, players history, players risks, players lineups (missing a key figure in the lineup could hurt powerslots), players ages and much more. These are the ifs, the what could happens, the if onlys and the i wonder ifs that every fantasy baseball league participant must weigh come draft day. But like I said in the previous paragraph, you should go with the guarantee in most cases. The only area where you really should fret is in the first round where your franchise player is picked. Where the Arods and Pujols, the Howards and the Utleys, or the Jose Reyes (Remember his second half underachievements?) and Jimmy Rollins. Make the right choice in the first and second round and then go with the guarantee in the rest of the draft. That's how I plan to go about my draft in dealing with the iffy stud players gone bad. It isn't as far off as you might think. Remember Thanksgiving? Well it's about as far back as your fantasy baseball draft is ahead. Just a month and a half. Okay, give or take a few weeks, lol.

Tags: - Fantasy Baseball - Draft